An eye-watering 132,945 small businesses on UK high streets will be extinct within 15 years - with local pubs and bars set to vanish in little over a decade.

In a stark warning to shoppers this Black Friday, small business insurance provider Simply Business has calculated the extinction date of independent high street businesses, should current rates of decline continue. 

Electrical appliance shops top the list of most endangered businesses. Unable to compete with the huge discounts on offer from online retailers, they could be wiped out by as early as 2029, as shoppers hold off on purchasing until Black Friday deals are revealed.

Meanwhile, according to analysis of ONS data*, shoe shops and homeware stores are currently experiencing the fastest decline and will cease to exist by 2034. 

(Image: Simply Business) Pubs, bars and newsagents will be in dire straits over the next decade as this sector has seen the largest overall drop in registrations and increase in closures. 

Top 10 endangered businesses (extinction date):

  • Electrical appliance (2029)
  • Shoe shops & leather goods (2034)
  • Furniture & homeware shops (2034)
  • Pubs and Bars (2035)
  • Newsagents & Stationers (2035)
  • Fishmongers (2038)
  • Chemists (2039)
  • Tech & PC shops (2039)
  • Watch shops & jewellers (2039)
  • Clothing stores (2039)

To call attention to the plight of UK pubs in a striking way, Simply Business has partnered with The Pelton Arms in Greenwich to give it a poignant ‘Bleak Friday’ makeover. Now masked in black and renamed ‘The Extinction Arms’, patrons and passers-by are confronted by what the street would look like if it lost this vibrant character.

Like so many independent pubs across the UK, the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget announcement will impact The Pelton Arms directly. With significant cuts to the amount of business rates relief available and the new costs of employment adding to their burden, they are feeling the pressure.

Geoff Keen, Landlord of The Pelton Arms said: “It’s bittersweet to be taking part in Simply Business’ ‘Bleak Friday’ campaign as it brings to light the very real fears that keep all small and independent business owners up at night. We understand firsthand how difficult times are not just for pubs but across all sectors to keep our livelihood afloat against the various issues we face on a daily basis.” 

“This is such an important campaign and we’re hoping this puts places like ours front of mind this Black Friday and beyond because we are the fabric of communities all over the country and it’s time to show support now before it’s too late.” 

Launching on Black Friday, the ‘Bleak Friday’ campaign urges shoppers to support small and independent businesses around this peak retail moment. In a bid to give voice to small businesses across the UK and aid future campaigns, Simply Business is inviting small business owners and shoppers to share their thoughts on what can be done to save independent businesses on the high street.

High street businesses including greengrocer Reg the Veg (Bristol), M.Manze pie shops (Tower Bridge, Peckham, Sutton), Top of the Town (Stockport) and East End pub The George Tavern (Stepney), have taken to social media to share their own extinction dates, if the current state of decline continues. 

With business rates relief set to decrease to 40% from April 2025 following the Autumn Statement, Simply Business will also support one small business with a highstreet premises, with a £10k injection to soften the blow of a bigger business rates bill next year. Owners can enter for a chance to receive the financial support on the Simply Business website. 

Bea Montoya, UK Chief Operating Officer at Simply Business said: "Britain's independent high street is at breaking point. Our research paints a bleak picture – if we don't act urgently, our high streets will soon look vastly different. Independent pubs, newsagents and others will soon be extinct, and the impact this will have on communities will be devastating.

"Owners have told us what would help. A third (33%) say the Government should invest in infrastructure to make high streets more attractive to shoppers, 27% want to see business rates scrapped, and 22% want to see grants, loans or tax incentives for independent retail businesses. Almost all owners (94%) believe the Government has a key role to play in turning the tide.

"Beyond enriching our communities, we know that what's best for small businesses is best for our economy – they collectively contribute trillions of pounds and account for vast employment.

"We hope this campaign will raise awareness, and we're committed to doing our best to materially help. That's why we'll be financially supporting a high street business in light of the cut in business rates relief, while at the same time gathering insight to outline a long-term plan to save our high street."