The Conservative party face the prospect of losing Bury North if there was a general election held now, according to the latest YouGov MRP model.

The data, collected by market research provider YouGov, predicted the Tory party would lose the Bury North seat that it gained in the 2019 general election.

The research also predicts that Bury South would keep its Labour seat.

Nationally, the picture is the same with Labour securing a 120-seat majority and winning 385 Commons seats.

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This would be a 183-seat increase for the party since the last election.

The Conservatives meanwhile would slump to just 169, losing 196 seats compared to 2019.

These results are reminiscent of the 1997 general election outcome, which saw Tony Blair’s Labour win 418 seats and John Major’s Conservatives take 165.

The Liberal Democrats would receive 48 seats and the SNP would fall to 25 seats with Labour making significant gains in the central belt.

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Reacting to the results, Labour candidate for Bury North James Frith said: “The only poll that matters is on election day. These polls show how hard up and fed-up people are with the Tories.

“It’s good to see too that people know Labour has changed and is ready to change the country. But there’s no room for complacency.

“Here in Bury North, as with Britain, it’s a two-horse race. It’s either change you can trust, or more of the same.

“I am change Bury North can trust and, on the doorstep, I'm making the case to vote for Labour’s renewal of our public services and more money in your pocket with Labour’s plan to grow the economy after 14 years of economic failure under the Tories. Bury and Britain are yearning for change.

“We need a general election now.”

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Conservative Bury North MP James Daly said: “Here in Bury, we have a strong record of delivery that I believe will make a big difference.

“Whether it’s delivering £1m for the community purchase of Gigg Lane, two new SEND schools for Bury, funds to save Margaret Haes Riding Centre, £100m+ direct investment in our town centre or fighting to stop Labour’s ridiculous clean air tax on motorists; we are delivering for people in Bury.

“Also, Sir Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair. He is a black hole that drains charisma from the world, flip-flopping from one stance to another desperately trying to pretend he isn’t the same person who not long ago was trying to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister.

“These polls are not a reflection of people’s love for Labour, they reflect frustration with the Conservatives.

“That is why I truly believe that with hard work, sound economic management over the coming months, delivering our plan to tackle illegal immigration and our record of investment in Bury, we can and will make a strong case to vote Conservative here in Bury.”

Bury South MP Christian Wakeford said he was working hard in the run up to the general election.

Conservative candidate for Bury South, Arnold Saunders said: “We have been consistently behind in the polls however, firstly, I’m confident that the Prime Minister and particularly the chancellor can turn things round by the time the election is due.

“I certainly don’t think the polls will be as bad as they are by the time of the election.

“Secondly, this poll was a very shadowy poll. It was commissioned by people who seem to have an agenda against the ruling members of the Conservative party, and it was timed just before the Rwanda Bill.

“I think this poll should be taken with a very heavy pinch of salt. I’m not naïve and realise we’ve been consistently behind in the polls and I’m not pretending we’re ahead at the moment.

“In the polls there’s a lot of ‘don’t knows’ and I personally feel that, yes, a lot of people aren’t happy with the Conservative party and government at the moment but there isn’t a great deal of enthusiasm for Keir Starmer in the way there was for Tony Blair.

“I am confident that, come the next election, we will do a lot better than what is currently being predicted and I don’t think I would be wasting my time running if I felt I was just going to be a lamb to slaughter.

“I’m not complacent and it's not going to be easy but this poll seems to be a rogue poll.”

Bury South will be treated as a Conservative defence at the next election, even though its present MP, Mr Wakeford, defected from the Tories to Labour halfway through the current parliament.