A DECLINE in the birth rate is likely to see 1,500 fewer children attending primary schools in Bury in four years time.

Officials at Bury Council have said that based on current pupil forecasts for primary schools, the levels of surplus capacity will increase to ‘unsustainable levels in most areas of the borough’.

Although the council has no plans for the closure of schools they acknowledged that declining numbers were likely to ‘impact the sustainability and viability of individual schools’.

A report to councillors on the children and young people scrutiny committee about demand for school places, set out the impact of of the declining number of births in the borough over the next few years.

The report said pupil number forecasts which in the past had been ‘proven to be highly accurate’, showed yearly primary school pupil intake numbers would reduce from 1,928 in 2022 to 1,719 in 2025.

That would mean a reduction in the overall school headcount from 14,903 in 2022 to 13,459 in 2025, meaning 1,444 fewer children attending primary education.

The report gave details of specific demographics in the borough.

It stated: “In the north of the borough, an ageing population results in a greater decline in the numbers of children and young people.

“In east Bury there has been significant inward migration, resulting in demand being sustained and in the south of the borough the Jewish community continues to grow, although that community is largely served by private and independent schools, as well as provision in neighbouring Manchester and Salford.”

The report added that residential growth in recent years, or home building which had secured planning permission, has largely been limited to a small number of brownfield sites, many of which are in Radcliffe, and were not impacting on school places across the borough.

In the Ramsbottom, Tottington and North Manor areas primary pupil year one intake is expected to be 43 per cent below capacity by 2025 with schools having a total of 25 per cent of spare capacity by that time.

By 2025, primary schools in Bury west will be have 20 per cent spare capacity while the figure in Bury east is set to be nine per cent.

The 2025 projections show Radcliffe will have 22 per cent of school places unfilled, Whitefield and Unsworth 16 per cent and Prestwich 14 per cent.

The report said demand for secondary pupil places has continued to rise, not yet having been impacted by the drop in demand seen in primary schools.

Forecasts indicated a peak in 2023.

Council chiefs say the use of flexibility with admission numbers had created temporary capacity that would be removed as demand dropped and a new high school in Radcliffe opened.

The report said the local authority could take action by reducing admission numbers at primary schools, accompanied by the removal of buildings, introduce collaborative arrangements between schools to reduce staffing and support costs or amalgamate or close schools.

The report added: “In looking at future demand pressures, it is recognised that forecasts indicate a decline in pupil numbers that will impact on the sustainability and viability of individual schools and that this cannot go unchecked.”